Betting markets initially had the Coalition tipped to win the election in November, but their fortunes have flipped in the month since both leaders embarked on the campaign trail.

On Tuesday afternoon, both Sportsbet’s and TAB’s markets had Labor a clear favourite to form the next government, at $1.19 and $1.20 respectively over Liberal at $4.90 and $4.50.

But support for Mr Dutton nosedived even further overnight.

At the time of writing, the odds for the Coalition forming government has swung out to $7.

Per The Australian’s final pre-election Newspoll, the Coalition leads Labor by a single point, 35 to 34 per cent, in the primary vote. Asked who would make the better Prime Minister, however, Mr Albanese was verging on 20 per cent ahead of Mr Dutton, 51 per cent to 35 per cent.

Sportsbet’s markets are now favouring a Labor minority government over a majority, $2 to $2.25. A Coalition majority is paying $23, while a minority is paying $9.

Betting odds for federal election winner, as of Tuesday March 29:

TAB: Labor $1.10; Coalition $7; other $151.00

Sportsbet: Labor $1.10; Coalition $7; other $151.00

Ladbrokes: Labor $1.16; Coalition $5.00; other $201.00

UNIBET: Labor $1.12; Coalition $6.50; other $101.00

Pointsbet: Labor $1.10; Coalition $7; other $351.00

A TAB spokesperson told news.com.au that “punters appear to have made up their mind” as to who should be our next leader.

“Anthony Albanese is an overwhelming favourite to be returned as Prime Minister on Saturday,” they said.

“A whopping 85 per cent of money in the last week has been for the Labor Party and there’s growing confidence it will be a Labor Majority government.

“There’s very little punter confidence that the Coalition can win, which makes them great value if you think Peter Dutton can create an upset on Saturday.

“Punters are split on whether it will be a Labor Minority or Majority, but a Labor Majority is the slight preference for punters at $2.20 while a Labor minority government is $2.30.”

There is some debate as to which of the two predictors – punters or opinion polls – are more authoritative and accurate. In his 2015 book The Luck of Politics, then-academic and current sitting Labor MP, Dr Andrew Leigh, said that punters can hold their own against opinion polls.

“Every time, betting markets have been found to perform at least as well, and usually better than, the polls,” he wrote.

Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham told Crikey earlier this year that although betting odds were “overrated” and often unreliable, “they are interesting to keep an eye on, particularly for things where you don’t have anything else concrete”.

“There are some people out there who have this belief that the market never lies, but this belief persists no matter how many times it is proven to be false,” Dr Bonham said, referring to the 2019 poll when then-Labor leader Bill Shorten lost the “unlosable election” to Scott Morrison.

In that instance, Sportsbet had to fork out $5.2 million after mistakenly calling a Labor win two days before the election was ultimately called in favour of the Coalition.