Federal election result that could break century-old record

Of all the Albanese government’s predecessors over the last 80 years, every one has been re-elected for a second term.

In the last century only one federal government has failed to be re-elected for a second term, that of Labor Prime Minister James Scullin, who had the poor fortune of coming to power about five minutes before the Great Depression began.

But despite all the post-war first term federal governments winning second terms, more than half faced very serious challenges.

In the interests of time, we’ll briefly be looking at three of them, the governments of Robert Menzies, Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser.

Robert Menzies

Just 7 months after the Menzies government came to office, the Korean War broke out, kicking off what would become an absolute rollercoaster ride for the nation.

On the home front, the demand for military uniforms and other clothing stemming from the war saw the price of wool surge in value dramatically.

At the time up to 50 per cent of the value of Australia’s exports stemmed from the wool trade.

Amid this influx in export revenue and the redirecting of supplies to feed the war effort, inflation took off reaching 14.3 per cent by the time of the next federal election, on the way to a peak just shy of 24 per cent in December 1951.

Gough Whitlam

When Gough Whitlam came to power in December 1972, he inherited a similar set of circumstances to his predecessor James Scullin, a nation that would in less than a year’s time stare down a global crisis.

Between July 1973 and January 1974, the cost of a barrel of oil rose by 183%.

As the global oil crisis continued to bite supplies of fuel were rationed and the economy took a sizeable hit amid surging levels of inflation.

When Whitlam took the nation to a double dissolution election in May of 1974, the nation was already in the midst of a recession that would be longest in Australia’s post-World War 2 history.

Yet despite the challenges faced by the Whitlam government, it lost just 1 seat and experienced the smallest two party preferred swing against a first term federal government in the last 50 years.

Malcolm Fraser

When the Fraser government came to power in November 1975, it inherited an economy that had only just emerged from recession and where inflation was still a blisteringly hot 12 per cent.

During this period Australia experienced stagflation, high levels of inflation and stagnating levels of economic growth.

The challenges of the period also saw the Fraser government deploy its so called “Razor Gang” cutting government programs in an attempt to rein in the budget deficit and reduce inflationary pressures.

‘Normal’ At The Ballot Box?

As late as mid-March oddsmakers had the Coalition as the strong favourite to pull off a historic victory, with an analysis of various betting odds by Mark the Ballot giving the Coalition a nearly 2/3 chance of victory.

Since then, things have deteriorated rapidly for the Coalition. According to modelling done by Accent Research on polling data from RedBridge Labor is projected to win 66 seats, the Coalition 55, with 14 seats too close to call.

Labor’s current advantage is also echoed in the modelling conducted by polling analyst Kevin

Bonham, which has Labor up 52.1 to 47.9 in two party preferred terms.

In the last 30 years of first term governments, an average of 13 seats have been lost at their return to the ballot box.

If we cast our gaze all the way back to the end of World War 2, we have to adjust our metric due to changes in the size of the lower house.

On that metric the average is a loss of 5.2 per cent of total seats in the parliament, with the electorate particularly unforgiving in the last 30 years, with an average loss of 8.7 per cent of the Howard, Rudd/Gillard and Abbott/Turnbull government’s seats at their first return to the polls.

Back To The Present

While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has faced the most challenging environment for a first term federal government since that of Kevin Rudd, relative to its predecessors in the post war era of the nation, the severity of the difficulty of circumstances is not unprecedented.

When put into perspective with the challenges faced by the Fraser or Whitlam government, they are very different.

The circumstances faced by the Albanese government were a double-edged sword, rather than the mostly downside generally faced by the government’s first term predecessors.

While the war in Ukraine played a significant role in putting upward pressure on already elevated inflation, but it also provided an enormous windfall to the federal Treasury and various state governments, giving them scope to inject additional spending into the economy.

Yet as the clock ticks down to the upcoming federal election, the Albanese government is staring down the possibility of becoming the first single term federal government since the Great Depression.

Historically, the Australian electorate has been quite forgiving of first term governments, but as cost of living and broader economic challenges mounted for households there was speculation that may be drawing to a close.

As polling sits today, it appears that the Opposition may not have adequately convinced the electorate that they are a viable alternative to the Albanese government.

Whichever way the election ends up going, it may end up being a historic result.

If the opposition emerges victorious, it would break an almost century old record.

If the Albanese government is re-elected without losing a single seat in net terms or perhaps even winning some additional seats, that would be an unprecedented outcome in the age of the Liberal and Labor dominated parliaments.