The case for the return of the final five

It is that time of year again when the cream of the NRL and the AFL go head-to-head in their respective “best of the best” finals series.

In an age when the encouragement of mediocrity is always a good topic for high school debating teams all striving for a participation ribbon, it is worth asking are we really watching the best of the best?

The AFL introduced the eight-team finals format in 1994 in a 15-team league. The “best of the best” could finish in the bottom half of the table.

In that first year, Collingwood finished eighth, quite literally the best of the worst, and got a shot at the title, losing narrowly in the first game against the minor premiers.

The NRL went to an eight-team format for its final series in 1995 for the expanded 20-team league and remained at eight finalists even during seasons when only 16 teams competed.

Until the arrival of the Dolphins that meant the entire top half of the table qualified for finals.

In 2019 the Broncos won nine fewer games in eighth position than the top-of-the-table Melbourne Storm over a 24-game season.

In those early days of eight teams finals, the McIntyre system was used to decide the playing schedule.

In week one first played eighth, second played seventh and so on down the ladder.

In the NRL this system met its end, not as you might expect, because first v eighth was just an invitation to a late-season thrashing, but the opposite, eighth won a few games.

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In 2008, the Warriors (8th) had the temerity to beat the first-place Melbourne Storm then won their next game to head for a home final.

It happened again in 2009 when the eighth-placed Eels beat the Minor Premier Dragons. The Dragons then went out on the back of two losses, the first minor premiers to do so.

Critics of the system argued that most of the season was rendered irrelevant if a team could drift along in mid-table, win a one-off game, and then head for a home final.

Someone should inform the Warriors that the format has changed as they have drifted along trying to only play two good games a season ever since.

The McIntyre system had other problems in that games had to be run in a certain order to avoid dead rubbers. In the era of television saturation and the increase in interstate games, this introduced scheduling difficulties.

The AFL had woken up to the problems with the McIntyre final-eight system much earlier and introduced the current system in 2000.

The new system provided greater rewards to the top four teams, simultaneously making it harder for the second four to qualify.

The system has been consistent now across the two leagues for over a decade, however even as both leagues have grown in numbers the reward for mediocrity has remained.

The NRL finals are now eight from 17, the AFL eight from 18.

Yes! Well done lads we’ve made the top 47%, nothing can stop us now.

This year with one game to go the Dockers were still in with a glimpse at the finals with 12 wins, nine losses one draw record.

In the NRL had a host of teams with nine wins and 12 losses who were still in with a “mathematical possibility” right until the last few rounds.

What do the numbers tell us about the competitiveness of this expanded format? In the last twelve years, the first four placed NRL teams have filled 22 of the 24 available grand finals places with all the winners coming from the first three places.

In the AFL, the first four filled 21 finals places with the Western Bulldogs 2016 win from seventh being the one success for teams placed fourth to eighth.

As you would expect the wider the difference in finishing position, the greater the disparity in win-loss ratios.

First beats fourth more often than second beats third and the same for fifth v eighth and sixth v seventh.

The eighth-placed team has won six games out of 24 in both competitions.

So far so predictable. The marked differences come in the next games, where the top losers from the top four play the winners from the bottom four.

In the NRL only two out of 24 games have been won by the lower sides and in the AFL only three.

No matter which way you look at it the top three teams in each year are markedly better than the bottom three.

The system is essentially a repechage, a chance for teams who know how to lose to prove it one more time.

Does anyone apart from the teams involved care about the inevitable elimination of the lower teams?

Is there a better system that saves us from the pointless escapades of mediocrity?

For those of us old enough to remember, there was a system that balanced the search for excellence with the possibility of the fairytale run.

The McIntyre final five system was a thing of rare beauty and balance. If any team wanted to win, they had to beat all the teams in the five who had finished above them – symmetry and harmony.

The universe but especially mathematicians, loved the system, and the world was a happier place.

In week one, two played three and four played five. Winners then played losers.

Four weeks to find the winner. We all know this system; our kids still play it.

A return to the final five would see only the top 27% of the teams being rewarded for their efforts.

This would eliminate four games by teams none of us need to see again and raise the overall standard of the series.

Making the finals would be rarer, something to strive for, dare I say it, a quest for excellence. Less can be more.

Therein lies a problem, in these days of saturation coverage, more is more, more games, more stories, more advertising and more money.

There are other problems, with no relegation, seasons will effectively end early for more teams, more dead rubbers, less viewers, less advertising, less money.

The AFL has an additional problem in that the further down you finish, the better your draft picks so there could be an earlier race for the bottom.

There are solutions to this. Firstly, just add another game. Neither league has a perfect home and away system so one more game will make little difference but bring in the revenue. I would even call it the “money round.”

Secondly, have a reward system for the teams lower down. My pub trivia night gives away a stubby cooler for the ninth.

Failing that other leagues have a cunning plan called prize money. Instead of just funding the teams equally, peg the funds received to the place achieved on the ladder.

The EPL does this to the tune of £3million a place, it seems to work.

This year as we head into another year of losers v losers the nostalgic amongst us will cast an eye back to 1988.

The year the Balmain Tigers took the final five to its finest moment, on a run all the way from fifth to the final, every team above them vanquished. There was even a playoff to see who came fifth.

Along the way, they captured the hearts of the nation, well, all apart from Terry Lamb, who did not have one and fell heroically at the final hurdle.

As a nation we do need this, the small window of opportunity for the plucky underdog.

The possibility of the fairy tale run needs to remain.

For the others let them have an early rest, they have done their job, just not very well, and maybe with a longer holiday and a higher target they will come back and do it better.